Lies, damn lies, and... football?

Statistics aren't all they're cracked up to be.

I’ve put this post off for a while.

But after seeing Southend draw against Forest Green on Saturday, with us having a shed load of corners, this idea of a post had to come to life.

Don’t worry, it’s not *all* about football!

At the start of last season, my mate Andy told me that statistically, only 2% of corner kicks result in a goal.

Being a geek, every single time Southend get a corner, I think of that now. And I haven’t seen them score from a corner since.

Those who watch football will know that corner kicks raise a sense of expectation. A hope that something may happen. And an average match has between 10 - 11 corners. My gut feel was that Southend get about 4 per match, so lets say 5 based on the averages.

For the matches I’ve seen, which I guess is 30 since that comment, that means that we should’ve had 150 corners and using that percentage, 3 goals.

What lies are hidden beneath these stats?

I have no reason to believe that the percentage is wrong, nor the average number of corners. But I also have no reason to use that percentage as a metric.

The only thing that idea of a statistic tells us is that Southend score 0% of goals from corners in the matches I’ve seen. There are matches I haven’t seen. And other teams might score 3%.

At the end of the day, we often hear a statistic and feel we have to live to it.

“You should spend 10% of your income on marketing”. Said the marketing consultant looking to sell his or her services. Regardless of whether you are a business that needs to spend 70%, or a business that doesn’t need to spend a penny.

The only statistics that matter are those that matter. The statistics that move the needle, the statistics that you are focusing on, and the statistics that you can measure accurately.

Don’t be swayed by folklore or what others are doing.

Work out the key statistics that matter to you or your business, monitor them relentlessly, and look to improve on those.

(although, three more goals may well have been the difference between Southend being non-league or playing league football today…)

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Carl Reader is a WH Smith Bestselling Author and international keynote speaker with a real passion for helping people do better. There are two ways to learn more about Carl! You can either follow him on Social Media if you’re just curious (@carlreader on most platforms), or if you’d like to learn a little more about what he does on stage, through content and in the media from a commercial perspective, you can visit his website.

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